Advocates of gun control talk of the concept of crime increasing as more people have guns as if it’s a graven-in-stone axiom. Evidence has been presented in many localities that suggest otherwise and now the FBI’s nationwide crime report for the 1st half of 2009 shows definitively that this concept is untrue. From the NRA-ILA:
Last week, the FBI issued its preliminary 2009 crime report, showing that the number of murders in the first half of 2009 decreased 10 percent compared to the first half of 2008. If the trend holds for the remainder of 2009, it will be the single greatest one-year decrease in the number of murders since at least 1960, the earliest year for which national data are available through the Bureau of Justice Statistics. Also, the per capita murder rate for 2009 will be 51 percent lower than the all-time high recorded in 1991, and it will be the lowest rate since 1963—a 46-year low. Final figures for 2009 will be released by the FBI next year.
There can be reasoned debate about the natures of the causes and effects listed in the report but the numbers are clear on this: gun ownership went way up in the 1st half of 2009 and crime went way down. “More guns means more crime” is a fallacy, period.
I contend that more guns in the hands of law-abiding citizens means criminals face a much higher risk-to-reward ratio when deciding to commit crimes against their neighbors and it is that change in the calculus that’s driving criminal behavior downward. That’s an educated guess and it accounts for the effects but there’s no denying that increased guns do not equate to increased crime. I look forward to seeing the report for the remainder of 2009 when it comes out.