Time To Put Ohio Behind Us
It appears that a hugely increased percentage of provisional ballots cast in Ohio are being declared valid – about 81% of those examined. That’s way, way up from the norm of 25% previously reported. Should that be the case across the state (and it would be an unprecedented level, to be sure) then 125,823 ballots will be accepted and counted. Even if we assume the nearly impossible and just say that all 125K+ votes are for Kerry, he’s still just over 10,000 votes behind. Far more likely would be an outcome that roughly mirrored the State’s election tally, which had 51% voting for Bush, 48% for Kerry. That puts Kerry’s take of these ballots at 60,395. Still over 75K behind President Bush’s totals, and let’s not forget that his total would then be raised by 64,170 votes as well. Doing the math, 136,000 – 60,395 (new votes for Kerry) = Bush’s lead at 75,605 votes; 75,605 + 64,170 (new votes for Bush) = Bush’s lead at 139,775 votes. So what would it take to call Ohio for Kerry?
It would take the number of valid provisional ballots to get up to 88%, an increase of 7% over current levels. And Kerry has to win them all. Remember, if Kerry only takes 48% of the ballots, there’s no way he can win. If he flip-flopped the percentages (pardon the term) and took 51% of the ballots instead of 48%, he could theoretically catch up. But only if there are 4,533,334 ballots. The math simply doesn’t work. Bush won Ohio and it doesn’t matter how you slice it. With Ohio out of Kerry’s grasp, he could not – and can not – win the election. The election is decided and it’s time for those who are saying Kerry really won to (pardon the term) move on. Better yet, join with your countrymen and work toward our democracy’s decided goals. Make your case again in 3 years and come up with better arguments. That’s the only way you can win.
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